House of Representatives
AFP
Top Republicans are increasingly concerned that their party could lose control of the Senate in the midterm elections, with internal polling showing a more competitive landscape than expected, according to a new report by Axios.
Citing GOP strategists and operatives familiar with private surveys, the outlet reported that party officials now see the Senate — where Republicans hold a 53–47 majority — as newly at risk, alongside the House, with one operative who reviewed internal polling saying:
"A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate. Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain"
Republican leaders recently discussed the headwinds in a closed-door meeting with senators, as Axios reports. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, presented data showing difficult conditions in several races, including Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins faces a competitive reelection bid.
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According to the report, GOP strategists see expanding Democratic competition in states beyond traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, extending into Republican-leaning states including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. They also warn that immigration and the economy — key issues in the president's 2024 win — are now testing as weaker points with some voters.
Earlier private Republican polling reviewed by the president's team in January showed declining support for the administration's immigration policies among independents, moderates and minority voters, Axios previously reported with one senior adviser saying the president supports mass deportations but is concerned about public reaction to enforcement images:
"He wants deportations. He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks"
Public polling has pointed in a similar direction, with multiple surveys in January finding reduced approval for immigration enforcement actions.
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Some Republican lawmakers have also warned about erosion among Latino voters. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar said in a social media post in late January that "Hispanics are leaving the GOP in large numbers" and urged the party to "reverse course and act now."
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Tags: Senate, Republican Party, 2026 Midterm Elections, Immigration, Trump administration